On that form alone he is a clear standout pick, but the record in general is hard to ignore. He has won six of his last nine races and two of his last three, where his only fault was a defeat on Melbourne Cup Day down the Flemington straight.
Paul Gatt retains the ride, and from barrier four he should find himself with a bit of cover early on and prove hard to hold out in the featured event. He has won his last five races on the bounce, and coming off a four-week freshen up he looks primed to bring up his first win at Listed level. With plenty of early speed drawn underneath him, the query is he may get stranded out wide. In a race where they will not go slowly, that may prove detrimental to his chances.
However, he is racing in career-best form and is rock hard fit, so if anyone in this race can overcome that adversity, it is this guy. It has already been a dream weekend for Leeds without them even playing — but it would be made perfect with victory at Derby, who are consigned to a 13 th consecutive season in the second tier.
Sixth spot had looked within their grasp after the restart, with the team starting their summer fixtures with three straight wins — and a win at Preston North End earlier this month put them just one point off Cardiff.
In fairness, they have played some of those games without key performers like Martyn Waghorn, Tom Lawrence and Louie Sibley — all three are expected to be available here. The West Yorkshire outfit accrued a victory over Barnsley, mustering just six shots all afternoon — their seasonal average is They finished the game with five centre-backs on the pitch, if we include Luke Ayling: Ben White started in defensive midfield to replace Kalvin Phillips with Gaetano Berardi coming into a back-three next to Ayling and Liam Cooper.
In fairness to Leeds, they still did a decent job of blocking out the advanced central areas and limited their opponents to just two shots on target as well, so there was at least an element of efficiency about a display which would have been concerning had it happened before Christmas, but meant little at the business end.
Leeds rightly celebrated their achievements on Friday and Saturday — this may have affected preparation. Any line-up Bielsa names could be lacking something in the holding midfield position; White and Struijk are centre-backs by trade, Shackleton sees himself as a number eight, Mateusz Klich is best when given the freedom to make bold runs deep into the opposing half while Alfie McCalmont did not make the last match-day squad.
Cocu could also rotate with attacking right-back Jayden Bogle, utility man George Evans, left-back Scott Malone, holding midfielder Graeme Shinnie and versatile forward Martyn Waghorn potentially coming in — teenagers Lee Buchanan and Morgan Whittaker may play a part too.
A start for Malone could be a plus for the Rams; the former Fulham left-back has a fantastic engine and would offer more pace and width than stalwart Craig Forsyth. Just two of the last seven Championship games involving a pre-crowned title-winner have seen that team be victorious — both were won in by Leicester, who beat lowly Huddersfield before relegating Doncaster through a highly questionable penalty decision.
The various champions have accrued a combined nine points in those seven matches, scoring just six goals — so the evidence is that sides who have blown away many before them while on a mission turn into essentially bottom half fodder once that mission is complete. This could be the case for Leeds, who have worked at such a high-intensity under Bielsa over the last two seasons and it could be difficult for them to replicate that with all their goals met.
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